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Jong PSV vs Jong Ajax Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Jong PSV

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Jong Ajax

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.9%0-22.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.2%1-18.5%1-25.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.9%3-16.8%3-24.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-16.2%4+-24.3%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 57.8% 1.73 -3.6%

Draw 20.4% 23.8% 4.20 -14.3%

Away win 23.8% 25.3% 3.95 -6.0%

Over 2.5 69.1% 75.2% 1.33 -8.1%

Over 3.5 47.8% 55.6% 1.80 -14.0%

BTTS 66.5% 75.2% 1.33 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob66.5%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong PSV2.2

Jong Ajax1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.1% · O3.5 PROB 47.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG PSV · PPG 1.67

JONG AJAX · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=55.7%

Win probability 1X2

Jong PSV (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -3.6%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -14.3%

Jong Ajax (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong PSV face Jong Ajax in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong PSV a 56% chance, the draw 20% and Jong Ajax 24%, so Jong PSV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Jong PSV and 1.4 for Jong Ajax (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong PSV are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.67 for Jong Ajax. This match finished 0-1.

Jong PSV vs Jong Ajax Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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