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Libertad vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 19 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 23:00

Libertad

PPG 1.89 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

San Lorenzo

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.4%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-110.3%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.3%3-16.2%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-14.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% 64.9% 1.54 -6.7%

Draw 24.8% 26.7% 3.75 -7.0%

Away win 14.6% 17.4% 5.75 -16.1%

Over 2.5 51.7% 50.0% 2.00 +3.4%

Over 3.5 29.5% 29.0% 3.45 +1.8%

BTTS 50.1% 51.3% 1.95 -2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.1%

H 61% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertad1.9

San Lorenzo0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAD · PPG 1.89

SAN LORENZO · PPG 0.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.89) vs P(Home)=60.6%

Win probability 1X2

Libertad (H) 60.6%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -6.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.0%

San Lorenzo (A) 14.6%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertad face San Lorenzo in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertad a 61% chance, the draw 25% and San Lorenzo 15%, so Libertad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Libertad and 0.8 for San Lorenzo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertad are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.22 for San Lorenzo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 5-0.

Libertad vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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