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Helmond Sport vs VVV Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 37 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Helmond Sport

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

VVV

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.4%0-28.2%0-34.0%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.6%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.7%2-16.8%2-25.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.5%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 37.0% 2.70 -22.8%

Draw 26.2% 28.2% 3.55 -7.0%

Away win 45.2% 41.7% 2.40 +8.5%

Over 2.5 46.8% 60.6% 1.65 -22.8%

Over 3.5 25.2% 38.5% 2.60 -34.5%

BTTS 51.0% 66.7% 1.50 -23.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.0%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 1–2 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Helmond Sport1.1

VVV1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HELMOND SPORT · PPG 1.44

VVV · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Helmond Sport (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -22.8%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.0%

VVV (A) 45.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Helmond Sport face VVV in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helmond Sport a 29% chance, the draw 26% and VVV 45%, so VVV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Helmond Sport and 1.5 for VVV (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helmond Sport are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.06 for VVV. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Helmond Sport vs VVV Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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