Helmond Sport vs VVV Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Regular Season - 37 GS Staalwerken Stadion· Helmond Friday, April 17, 2026 18:00

Helmond Sport PPG 1.44

2-0 MISS

VVV PPG 1.06

Away· +8.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Helmond Sport face VVV in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helmond Sport a 29% chance, the draw 26% and VVV 45%, so VVV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Helmond Sport and 1.5 for VVV (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helmond Sport are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.06 for VVV. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 28.6%

Odds: 2.70 EV: -22.8%

Draw 26.2%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -7.0%

Away 45.2%

Odds: 2.40 EV: +8.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.8% Odds: 1.65 -22.8%

Over 3.5 25.2% Odds: 2.60 -34.5%

BTTS 51.0% Odds: 1.50 -23.5%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Helmond Sport

1.10

VVV

1.45

Model SuggestionBTTS -23.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -23.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+8.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)