Today / Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura / S. Trinidense vs 2 de Mayo

S. Trinidense vs 2 de Mayo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 19 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 20:45

S. Trinidense

PPG 2.11 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

2 de Mayo

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.5% — a clear edge.

+20.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-15.6%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-110.4%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.5%3-16.0%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.9% 50.5% 1.98 +20.6%

Draw 25.1% 31.3% 3.20 -19.7%

Away win 14.0% 27.0% 3.70 -48.2%

Over 2.5 49.5% 45.5% 2.20 +8.9%

Over 3.5 27.6% 25.0% 4.00 +10.4%

BTTS 47.9% 52.4% 1.91 -8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.9%

H 61% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 1–1 10.4%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Trinidense1.9

2 de Mayo0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

S. TRINIDENSE · PPG 2.11

2 DE MAYO · PPG 0.89

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs P(Home)=60.9%

Win probability 1X2

S. Trinidense (H) 60.9%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +20.6%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -19.7%

2 de Mayo (A) 14.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -48.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Trinidense face 2 de Mayo in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Trinidense a 61% chance, the draw 25% and 2 de Mayo 14%, so S. Trinidense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for S. Trinidense and 0.8 for 2 de Mayo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Trinidense are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.89 for 2 de Mayo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 1-2.

S. Trinidense vs 2 de Mayo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura Predictions