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Algeciras vs Cartagena Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 35 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 19:15

Algeciras

PPG 2.06 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Cartagena

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.9%0-112.2%0-24.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.1%1-113.1%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.2%2-17.0%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.3%3-12.5%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 40.0% 2.50 +1.0%

Draw 35.8% 38.2% 2.62 -6.2%

Away win 23.8% 35.7% 2.80 -33.4%

Over 2.5 28.0% — — —

Over 3.5 11.5% — — —

BTTS 37.2% 46.5% 2.15 -20.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob37.2%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.9%

#2 1–0 17.1%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Algeciras1.1

Cartagena0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALGECIRAS · PPG 2.06

CARTAGENA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=40.4%

Win probability 1X2

Algeciras (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +1.0%

Draw 35.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -6.2%

Cartagena (A) 23.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -33.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Algeciras face Cartagena in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Algeciras a 40% chance, the draw 36% and Cartagena 24%, so Algeciras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Algeciras and 0.8 for Cartagena (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Algeciras are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.06 for Cartagena. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Algeciras vs Cartagena Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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