Algeciras vs Cartagena Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Group 2 - 35 Estadio Nuevo Mirador· Algeciras Friday, May 1, 2026 19:15

Algeciras PPG 2.06

2-2 MISS

Cartagena PPG 1.06

Home· +1.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Algeciras face Cartagena in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Algeciras a 40% chance, the draw 36% and Cartagena 24%, so Algeciras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Algeciras and 0.8 for Cartagena (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Algeciras are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.06 for Cartagena. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 40.4%

Odds: 2.50 EV: +1.0%

Draw 35.8%

Odds: 2.62 EV: -6.2%

Away 23.8%

Odds: 2.80 EV: -33.4%

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 28.0% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 11.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 37.2% Odds: 2.15 -20.0%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Algeciras

1.07

Cartagena

0.77

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5/Under 46%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 65.2%

Bet Hit 69% (13 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=40.4%