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Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 14 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 19:00

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Waterford

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

Home 78% chance

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 81.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.0%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.6%1-18.7%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.2%3-16.9%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-16.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.8% 81.3% 1.23 -15.4%

Draw 21.0% 18.2% 5.50 +15.5%

Away win 10.2% 7.7% 13.00 +32.6%

Over 2.5 56.1% 64.5% 1.55 -13.0%

Over 3.5 33.7% 42.6% 2.35 -20.8%

BTTS 48.1% 50.0% 2.00 -3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 69% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 1–0✓ 11.6%

#3 1–1 8.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamrock Rovers2.2

Waterford0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 2.67

WATERFORD · PPG 0.17

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.67), Away POOR (0.17) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Shamrock Rovers (H) 68.8%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -15.4%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +15.5%

Waterford (A) 10.2%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +32.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamrock Rovers face Waterford in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamrock Rovers a 69% chance, the draw 21% and Waterford 10%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Shamrock Rovers and 0.8 for Waterford (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamrock Rovers are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.17 for Waterford. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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