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Bohemians vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 14 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 19:00

Bohemians

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Derry City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-110.8%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.8%1-113.2%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-18.1%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 52.9% 1.89 -24.0%

Draw 32.9% 29.9% 3.35 +10.2%

Away win 26.9% 24.4% 4.10 +10.3%

Over 2.5 37.1% 45.5% 2.20 -18.4%

Over 3.5 17.6% 23.8% 4.20 -26.1%

BTTS 45.4% 51.8% 1.93 -12.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.4%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bohemians1.2

Derry City1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.1% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.50

DERRY CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

45%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bohemians (H) 40.2%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV -24.0%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +10.2%

Derry City (A) 26.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bohemians face Derry City in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bohemians a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Derry City 27%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bohemians and 1.0 for Derry City (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bohemians are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Derry City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Bohemians vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions