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De Graafschap vs Cambuur Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 37 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

De Graafschap

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLD

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cambuur

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.3%0-26.4%0-34.4%0-4+3.6%1 1-04.4%1-19.0%1-29.2%1-36.3%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.2%2-16.5%2-26.6%2-34.5%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.5%3-13.1%3-23.2%3-32.2%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.5%4+-21.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.0% 42.6% 2.35 -36.5%

Draw 21.3% 26.7% 3.75 -20.1%

Away win 51.7% 38.2% 2.62 +35.4%

Over 2.5 67.7% 71.4% 1.40 -5.2%

Over 3.5 46.1% 50.0% 2.00 -7.8%

BTTS 66.5% 75.2% 1.33 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob66.5%

A 52% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

De Graafschap1.4

Cambuur2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DE GRAAFSCHAP · PPG 1.67

CAMBUUR · PPG 1.89

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.89)

Win probability 1X2

De Graafschap (H) 27.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -36.5%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -20.1%

Cambuur (A) 51.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +35.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

De Graafschap face Cambuur in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives De Graafschap a 27% chance, the draw 21% and Cambuur 52%, so Cambuur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for De Graafschap and 2.0 for Cambuur (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, De Graafschap are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.89 for Cambuur. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.4%. This match finished 3-1.

De Graafschap vs Cambuur Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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