De Graafschap vs Cambuur Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Regular Season - 37 De Vijverberg· Doetinchem Friday, April 17, 2026 18:00

De Graafschap PPG 1.67

3-1 MISS

Cambuur PPG 1.89

Away· +35.4% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

De Graafschap face Cambuur in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives De Graafschap a 27% chance, the draw 21% and Cambuur 52%, so Cambuur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for De Graafschap and 2.0 for Cambuur (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, De Graafschap are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.89 for Cambuur. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 27.0%

Odds: 2.35 EV: -36.5%

Draw 21.3%

Odds: 3.75 EV: -20.1%

Away 51.7%

Odds: 2.62 EV: +35.4%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 67.7% Odds: 1.40 -5.2%

Over 3.5 46.1% Odds: 2.00 -7.8%

BTTS 66.5% Odds: 1.33 -11.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-2 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

De Graafschap

1.44

Cambuur

2.05

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -5.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-5.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 58%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.89)