Today / Spain - Segunda División / Real Zaragoza vs Granada

Real Zaragoza vs Granada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 38 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 19:00

Real Zaragoza

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Granada

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-111.2%0-26.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.8%1-113.1%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.3%2-17.6%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.4%3-13.0%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% 44.2% 2.26 -25.4%

Draw 31.7% 32.8% 3.05 -3.3%

Away win 35.4% 29.9% 3.35 +18.6%

Over 2.5 42.7% 46.5% 2.15 -8.2%

Over 3.5 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -16.1%

BTTS 50.5% 54.6% 1.83 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.5%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 0–1✓ 11.2%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Zaragoza1.2

Granada1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL ZARAGOZA · PPG 1.00

GRANADA · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Real Zaragoza (H) 33.0%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -25.4%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -3.3%

Granada (A) 35.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Zaragoza face Granada in Spain - Segunda División on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Zaragoza a 33% chance, the draw 32% and Granada 35%, so Granada are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Real Zaragoza and 1.2 for Granada (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Zaragoza are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.06 for Granada. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Real Zaragoza vs Granada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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