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Real Zaragoza vs Granada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 38 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 19:00

Real Zaragoza

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Granada

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-111.2%0-26.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.8%1-113.1%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.3%2-17.6%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.4%3-13.0%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% 44.2% 2.26 -25.4%

Draw 31.7% 32.8% 3.05 -3.3%

Away win 35.4% 29.9% 3.35 +18.6%

Over 2.5 42.7% 46.5% 2.15 -8.2%

Over 3.5 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -16.1%

BTTS 50.5% 54.6% 1.83 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.5%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 0–1✓ 11.2%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Zaragoza1.2

Granada1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL ZARAGOZA · PPG 1.00

GRANADA · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

53%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Real Zaragoza (H) 33.0%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -25.4%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -3.3%

Granada (A) 35.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Zaragoza face Granada in Spain - Segunda División on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Zaragoza a 33% chance, the draw 32% and Granada 35%, so Granada are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Real Zaragoza and 1.2 for Granada (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Zaragoza are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.06 for Granada. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Real Zaragoza vs Granada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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