Wexford vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Ireland - First Division Regular Season - 13 Ferrycarrig Park· Wexford Friday, May 1, 2026 18:45

Wexford PPG 2.17

2-0 HIT CS5

Finn Harps PPG 0.83

Draw· +5.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Wexford face Finn Harps in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wexford a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Finn Harps 24%, so Wexford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Wexford and 1.0 for Finn Harps (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wexford are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.83 for Finn Harps. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.8%

Odds: 1.78 EV: -16.7%

Draw 29.4%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +5.8%

Away 23.9%

Odds: 4.35 EV: +4.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.0% Odds: 1.83 -14.0%

Over 3.5 25.4% Odds: 3.10 -21.3%

BTTS 52.2% Odds: 1.73 -9.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Wexford

1.52

Finn Harps

1.03

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+5.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5/Under 43%

BTTS/No 43%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 33% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=46.8%