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Wexford vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:45

Wexford

PPG 2.17 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Finn Harps

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.0%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.8%1-112.2%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.3%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 56.2% 1.78 -16.7%

Draw 29.4% 27.8% 3.60 +5.8%

Away win 23.9% 23.0% 4.35 +4.0%

Over 2.5 47.0% 54.6% 1.83 -14.0%

Over 3.5 25.4% 32.3% 3.10 -21.3%

BTTS 52.2% 57.8% 1.73 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wexford1.5

Finn Harps1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WEXFORD · PPG 2.17

FINN HARPS · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=46.8%

Win probability 1X2

Wexford (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV -16.7%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +5.8%

Finn Harps (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wexford face Finn Harps in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wexford a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Finn Harps 24%, so Wexford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Wexford and 1.0 for Finn Harps (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wexford are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.83 for Finn Harps. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Wexford vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions