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Almere City vs FC Dordrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Almere City

PPG 1.67 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Dordrecht

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.3%0-24.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.0%1-110.8%1-27.3%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.3%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.9%3-15.3%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.3%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 52.6% 1.90 -12.4%

Draw 23.6% 26.0% 3.85 -9.1%

Away win 30.3% 28.6% 3.50 +6.0%

Over 2.5 59.0% 67.6% 1.48 -12.7%

Over 3.5 36.6% 46.5% 2.15 -21.3%

BTTS 60.6% 70.4% 1.42 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.6%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 8.0%

#4 1–2 7.3%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almere City1.7

FC Dordrecht1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMERE CITY · PPG 1.67

FC DORDRECHT · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Almere City (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -12.4%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.1%

FC Dordrecht (A) 30.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almere City face FC Dordrecht in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almere City a 46% chance, the draw 24% and FC Dordrecht 30%, so Almere City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Almere City and 1.3 for FC Dordrecht (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almere City are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for FC Dordrecht. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Almere City vs FC Dordrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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