Almere City vs FC Dordrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Regular Season - 37 Yanmar Stadion· Almere Friday, April 17, 2026 18:00

Almere City PPG 1.67

4-1 MISS

FC Dordrecht PPG 1.33

Away· +6.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Almere City face FC Dordrecht in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almere City a 46% chance, the draw 24% and FC Dordrecht 30%, so Almere City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Almere City and 1.3 for FC Dordrecht (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almere City are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for FC Dordrecht. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.1%

Odds: 1.90 EV: -12.4%

Draw 23.6%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -9.1%

Away 30.3%

Odds: 3.50 EV: +6.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.48 -12.7%

Over 3.5 36.6% Odds: 2.15 -21.3%

BTTS 60.6% Odds: 1.42 -14.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Almere City

1.71

FC Dordrecht

1.35

Model SuggestionBTTS -14.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -14.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+6.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 58%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

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Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)