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Bray Wanderers vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 13 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:45

Bray Wanderers

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Treaty Utd

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Home 58% chance

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.5%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.5%1-111.2%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.6%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 59.5% 1.68 -7.3%

Draw 27.1% 26.7% 3.75 +1.6%

Away win 17.7% 20.6% 4.85 -14.2%

Over 2.5 48.8% 55.6% 1.80 -12.2%

Over 3.5 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -19.3%

BTTS 50.4% 57.8% 1.73 -12.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.4%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bray Wanderers1.7

Treaty Utd0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 2.00

TREATY UTD · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=55.2%

Win probability 1X2

Bray Wanderers (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -7.3%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.6%

Treaty Utd (A) 17.7%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bray Wanderers face Treaty Utd in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bray Wanderers a 55% chance, the draw 27% and Treaty Utd 18%, so Bray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bray Wanderers and 0.9 for Treaty Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bray Wanderers are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Treaty Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Bray Wanderers vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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