← Back to picks

Bray Wanderers vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Ireland - First Division logo Ireland flag Ireland - First Division Regular Season - 13 Carlisle Grounds· Bray Friday, May 1, 2026 18:45
Bray Wanderers logo Bray Wanderers PPG 2.00
2-2 MISS
Treaty Utd logo Treaty Utd PPG 0.33
Draw· +1.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Bray Wanderers face Treaty Utd in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bray Wanderers a 55% chance, the draw 27% and Treaty Utd 18%, so Bray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bray Wanderers and 0.9 for Treaty Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bray Wanderers are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Treaty Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 55.2%
Odds: 1.68 EV: -7.3%
Draw 27.1%
Odds: 3.75 EV: +1.6%
Away 17.7%
Odds: 4.85 EV: -14.2%
Model lean: Home ✘ Miss Not tracked as an official bet.
1X2 pick: Home → Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.8% Odds: 1.80 -12.2%
Over 3.5 26.9% Odds: 3.00 -19.3%
BTTS 50.4% Odds: 1.73 -12.8%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 1-0
3rd 2-0
4th 2-1
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Bray Wanderers
1.73
Treaty Utd
0.90

Model Suggestion

Home -7.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -7.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+1.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%
O2.5/Under 48%
BTTS/No 48%
Score Hit 43%
ROI -14.2%
Bet Hit 33% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=55.2%

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org