Today / Ireland - First Division / Athlone Town vs Kerry

Athlone Town vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:45

Athlone Town

PPG 2.17 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kerry

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.1%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.3%1-111.7%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.6%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.1%3-15.2%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 41.3% 2.42 +20.3%

Draw 28.1% 31.7% 3.15 -11.5%

Away win 22.2% 33.9% 2.95 -34.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 47.6% 2.10 +5.0%

Over 3.5 28.0% 26.0% 3.85 +7.8%

BTTS 53.7% 55.6% 1.80 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.7%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–0✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athlone Town1.6

Kerry1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 2.17

KERRY · PPG 0.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

Athlone Town (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV +20.3%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -11.5%

Kerry (A) 22.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -34.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athlone Town face Kerry in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athlone Town a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Kerry 22%, so Athlone Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Athlone Town and 1.0 for Kerry (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athlone Town are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.33 for Kerry. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Athlone Town vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions