Today / Ireland - Premier Division / Galway Utd vs St. Patricks

Galway Utd vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 14 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:45

Galway Utd

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

St. Patricks

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-110.0%0-27.5%0-33.7%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.1%1-112.1%1-29.0%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.9%2-17.3%2-25.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.9%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 24.4% 4.10 +18.5%

Draw 29.1% 29.9% 3.35 -2.5%

Away win 42.0% 52.6% 1.90 -20.2%

Over 2.5 50.7% 47.6% 2.10 +6.5%

Over 3.5 28.6% 26.3% 3.80 +8.7%

BTTS 56.2% 54.1% 1.85 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob56.2%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galway Utd1.2

St. Patricks1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GALWAY UTD · PPG 2.00

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Galway Utd (H) 28.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +18.5%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.5%

St. Patricks (A) 42.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galway Utd face St. Patricks in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galway Utd a 29% chance, the draw 29% and St. Patricks 42%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Galway Utd and 1.5 for St. Patricks (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galway Utd are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for St. Patricks. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Galway Utd vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions