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Dundalk vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 14 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:45

Dundalk

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shelbourne

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.4%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.8%1-110.2%1-26.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.6%3-16.0%3-23.9%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 40.0% 2.50 +23.5%

Draw 25.6% 28.2% 3.55 -9.1%

Away win 25.0% 38.5% 2.60 -35.0%

Over 2.5 61.5% 54.6% 1.83 +12.6%

Over 3.5 39.2% 32.3% 3.10 +21.5%

BTTS 63.1% 60.6% 1.65 +4.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.1%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2✓ 6.6%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundalk1.9

Shelbourne1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDALK · PPG 2.33

SHELBOURNE · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Dundalk (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +23.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.1%

Shelbourne (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -35.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundalk face Shelbourne in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundalk a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Shelbourne 25%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Dundalk and 1.3 for Shelbourne (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundalk are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Shelbourne. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Dundalk vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions