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Drogheda Utd vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 14 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:45

Drogheda Utd

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sligo Rovers

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.4%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.2%1-112.8%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-18.8%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-14.0%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 51.5% 1.94 -17.9%

Draw 31.0% 30.3% 3.30 +2.3%

Away win 26.8% 25.3% 3.95 +5.9%

Over 2.5 43.4% 50.0% 2.00 -13.2%

Over 3.5 22.4% 28.2% 3.55 -20.5%

BTTS 50.3% 56.5% 1.77 -11.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.3%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0✓ 12.2%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drogheda Utd1.4

Sligo Rovers1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 0.83

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Drogheda Utd (H) 42.3%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -17.9%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +2.3%

Sligo Rovers (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Drogheda Utd face Sligo Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drogheda Utd a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Sligo Rovers 27%, so Drogheda Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Drogheda Utd and 1.0 for Sligo Rovers (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drogheda Utd are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.67 for Sligo Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Drogheda Utd vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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