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Livingston vs Aberdeen Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group - 35 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:45

Livingston

PPG 0.63 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aberdeen

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.63), Away POOR (0.76)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.2%0-25.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.9%1-112.5%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-18.5%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.0%3-13.8%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% — — —

Draw 30.0% — — —

Away win 32.7% — — —

Over 2.5 48.6% — — —

Over 3.5 26.8% — — —

BTTS 55.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.1%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Livingston1.4

Aberdeen1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVINGSTON · PPG 0.63

ABERDEEN · PPG 0.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.63), Away POOR (0.76)

Win probability 1X2

Livingston (H) 37.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aberdeen (A) 32.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Livingston face Aberdeen in Scotland - Premiership on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Livingston a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Aberdeen 33%, so Livingston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Livingston and 1.3 for Aberdeen (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Livingston are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 0.76 for Aberdeen. This match finished 2-2.

Livingston vs Aberdeen Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Premiership Predictions