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Pisa vs Lecce Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 35 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:45

Pisa

PPG 0.59 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Lecce

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-113.4%0-26.8%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.4%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.8%2-16.8%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.3%3-12.3%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 32.8% 3.05 -0.6%

Draw 34.7% 33.6% 2.98 +3.4%

Away win 32.7% 40.3% 2.48 -18.9%

Over 2.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

Over 3.5 14.7% 21.1% 4.75 -30.2%

BTTS 42.5% 50.0% 2.00 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob42.5%

D 35% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 0–1 13.4%

#4 1–0 13.4%

#5 1–2✓ 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pisa1.0

Lecce1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PISA · PPG 0.59

LECCE · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.59), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Pisa (H) 32.6%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -0.6%

Draw 34.7%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +3.4%

Lecce (A) 32.7%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pisa face Lecce in Italy - Serie A on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pisa a 33% chance, the draw 35% and Lecce 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for Pisa and 1.0 for Lecce (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pisa are averaging 0.59 points per game versus 0.71 for Lecce. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Pisa vs Lecce Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Predictions