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Al Diraiyah vs Abha Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 17:50

Al Diraiyah

PPG 2.47 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Abha

PPG 2.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.3%0-25.3%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.7%1-111.2%1-28.1%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.7%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.1%3-14.4%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 57.1% 1.75 -33.1%

Draw 27.7% 27.4% 3.65 +1.1%

Away win 34.1% 25.6% 3.90 +33.0%

Over 2.5 57.5% 61.7% 1.62 -6.9%

Over 3.5 35.1% 39.2% 2.55 -10.5%

BTTS 61.9% 64.5% 1.55 -4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.9%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Diraiyah1.5

Abha1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL DIRAIYAH · PPG 2.47

ABHA · PPG 2.73

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.47), Away EXCELLENT (2.73)

Win probability 1X2

Al Diraiyah (H) 38.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -33.1%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +1.1%

Abha (A) 34.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Diraiyah face Abha in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Diraiyah a 38% chance, the draw 28% and Abha 34%, so Al Diraiyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Diraiyah and 1.4 for Abha (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Diraiyah are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 2.73 for Abha. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Al Diraiyah vs Abha Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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