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Fleury-Merogis vs Le Puy Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 17:30

Fleury-Merogis

PPG 1.79 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Le Puy

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.2%0-25.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.0%1-113.1%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.3%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.2%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% — — —

Draw 31.6% — — —

Away win 29.7% — — —

Over 2.5 42.2% — — —

Over 3.5 21.5% — — —

BTTS 49.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

D 32% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fleury-Merogis1.3

Le Puy1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FLEURY-MEROGIS · PPG 1.79

LE PUY · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.79), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Fleury-Merogis (H) 38.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Le Puy (A) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fleury-Merogis face Le Puy in France - National 1 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fleury-Merogis a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Le Puy 30%, so Fleury-Merogis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Fleury-Merogis and 1.1 for Le Puy (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fleury-Merogis are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.71 for Le Puy. This match finished 4-0.

Fleury-Merogis vs Le Puy Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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