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Rodez Aveyron vs Amiens Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Rodez Aveyron

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Amiens

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.4%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.8%1-111.2%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.5%3-15.7%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 56.5% 1.77 -4.6%

Draw 23.6% 26.7% 3.75 -11.5%

Away win 22.5% 23.8% 4.20 -5.5%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 30.4% 36.4% 2.75 -16.4%

BTTS 53.3% 61.7% 1.62 -13.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.3%

H 54% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rodez Aveyron1.7

Amiens1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RODEZ AVEYRON · PPG 1.67

AMIENS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Rodez Aveyron (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -4.6%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.5%

Amiens (A) 22.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rodez Aveyron face Amiens in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rodez Aveyron a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Amiens 23%, so Rodez Aveyron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rodez Aveyron and 1.0 for Amiens (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rodez Aveyron are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Amiens. This match finished 3-2.

Rodez Aveyron vs Amiens Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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