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Aubagne vs Stade Briochin Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 17:30

Aubagne

PPG 0.93 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Stade Briochin

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.5%0-24.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.9%1-112.4%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.0%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.9%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 43.5% 2.30 -2.0%

Draw 29.7% 29.9% 3.35 -0.5%

Away win 27.6% 36.4% 2.75 -24.1%

Over 2.5 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

Over 3.5 26.2% 33.3% 3.00 -21.4%

BTTS 53.9% 60.6% 1.65 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.9%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aubagne1.5

Stade Briochin1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.0% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AUBAGNE · PPG 0.93

STADE BRIOCHIN · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Aubagne (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -2.0%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -0.5%

Stade Briochin (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aubagne face Stade Briochin in France - National 1 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aubagne a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Stade Briochin 28%, so Aubagne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aubagne and 1.1 for Stade Briochin (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aubagne are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.71 for Stade Briochin. This match finished 1-2.

Aubagne vs Stade Briochin Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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