Today / France - Ligue 2 / Pau FC vs Guingamp

Pau FC vs Guingamp Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Pau FC

PPG 1.13 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Guingamp

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.6%0-25.7%0-33.3%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.8%1-110.1%1-28.8%1-35.1%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.5%2-17.8%2-26.7%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.3%3-14.0%3-23.5%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 33.3% 3.00 +2.9%

Draw 23.0% 29.4% 3.40 -21.8%

Away win 42.7% 44.4% 2.25 -3.9%

Over 2.5 63.6% 55.6% 1.80 +14.5%

Over 3.5 41.5% 33.3% 3.00 +24.5%

BTTS 64.7% 61.7% 1.62 +4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob64.7%

A 43% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1✓ 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pau FC1.5

Guingamp1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PAU FC · PPG 1.13

GUINGAMP · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Pau FC (H) 34.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +2.9%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -21.8%

Guingamp (A) 42.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pau FC face Guingamp in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pau FC a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Guingamp 43%, so Guingamp are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pau FC and 1.7 for Guingamp (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pau FC are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.21 for Guingamp. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Pau FC vs Guingamp Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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