Pau FC vs Guingamp Prediction— France - Ligue 2

France - Ligue 2 Regular Season - 31 Nouste Camp· Pau Friday, April 17, 2026 18:00

Pau FC PPG 1.13

2-1 HIT CS3

Guingamp PPG 1.21

Over3.5· +24.5% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Pau FC face Guingamp in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pau FC a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Guingamp 43%, so Guingamp are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pau FC and 1.7 for Guingamp (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pau FC are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.21 for Guingamp. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 34.3%

Odds: 3.00 EV: +2.9%

Draw 23.0%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -21.8%

Away 42.7%

Odds: 2.25 EV: -3.9%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.6% Odds: 1.80 +14.5%

Over 3.5 41.5% Odds: 3.00 +24.5%

BTTS 64.7% Odds: 1.62 +4.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✔

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Pau FC

1.54

Guingamp

1.74

Model SuggestionBTTS +4.8% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+24.5%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.21)