Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Aalborg BK vs Hobro

Aalborg BK vs Hobro Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 28 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 17:00

Aalborg BK

PPG 1.85 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hobro

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.85), Away GOOD (1.57)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.2%0-24.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.5%1-111.6%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.3%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.1%3-15.0%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% — — —

Draw 28.1% — — —

Away win 27.3% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.4% — — —

BTTS 58.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.1%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalborg BK1.6

Hobro1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AALBORG BK · PPG 1.85

HOBRO · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.85), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Aalborg BK (H) 44.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hobro (A) 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalborg BK face Hobro in Denmark - 1. Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalborg BK a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Hobro 27%, so Aalborg BK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Aalborg BK and 1.2 for Hobro (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalborg BK are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.57 for Hobro. This match finished 1-1.

Aalborg BK vs Hobro Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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