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Deportivo vs Leganes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 38 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 16:30

Deportivo

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Leganes

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.7%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.6%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.0%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.3%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 60.6% 1.65 -24.3%

Draw 30.4% 27.0% 3.70 +12.5%

Away win 23.7% 19.6% 5.10 +20.9%

Over 2.5 43.4% 54.1% 1.85 -19.7%

Over 3.5 22.4% 30.8% 3.25 -27.2%

BTTS 49.4% 54.6% 1.83 -9.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.4%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo1.4

Leganes1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO · PPG 1.78

LEGANES · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -24.3%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +12.5%

Leganes (A) 23.7%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo face Leganes in Spain - Segunda División on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo a 46% chance, the draw 30% and Leganes 24%, so Deportivo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Deportivo and 1.0 for Leganes (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Leganes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Deportivo vs Leganes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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