Deportivo vs Leganes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Spain - Segunda División Regular Season - 38 Estadio Municipal de Riazor· La Coruña Friday, May 1, 2026 16:30

Deportivo PPG 1.78

2-1 HIT CS5

Leganes PPG 1.00

Away· +20.9% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo face Leganes in Spain - Segunda División on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo a 46% chance, the draw 30% and Leganes 24%, so Deportivo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Deportivo and 1.0 for Leganes (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Leganes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.9%

Odds: 1.65 EV: -24.3%

Draw 30.4%

Odds: 3.70 EV: +12.5%

Away 23.7%

Odds: 5.10 EV: +20.9%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 43.4% Odds: 1.85 -19.7%

Over 3.5 22.4% Odds: 3.25 -27.2%

BTTS 49.4% Odds: 1.83 -9.6%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Deportivo

1.44

Leganes

0.98

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 64% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)