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Al Arabi vs Al Jubail Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 16:10

Al Arabi

PPG 0.73 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Jubail

PPG 0.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.6%0-25.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.3%1-112.8%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.5%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.3%3-13.8%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 59.9% 1.67 -34.5%

Draw 30.9% 27.8% 3.60 +11.2%

Away win 29.9% 22.2% 4.50 +34.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 57.8% 1.73 -22.5%

Over 3.5 23.6% 35.7% 2.80 -33.9%

BTTS 51.9% 59.9% 1.67 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.9%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Arabi1.3

Al Jubail1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ARABI · PPG 0.73

AL JUBAIL · PPG 0.07

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.73) > Away POOR (0.07)

Win probability 1X2

Al Arabi (H) 39.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -34.5%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +11.2%

Al Jubail (A) 29.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +34.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Arabi face Al Jubail in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Arabi a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Al Jubail 30%, so Al Arabi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Arabi and 1.1 for Al Jubail (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Arabi are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 0.07 for Al Jubail. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.5%. This match finished 4-3.

Al Arabi vs Al Jubail Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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