Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Middelfart vs Aarhus Fremad

Middelfart vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 28 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 16:00

Middelfart

PPG 0.54 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Aarhus Fremad

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: POOR (0.54) vs Away POOR (0.85)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-18.8%0-28.1%0-34.9%0-4+3.4%1 1-05.8%1-110.6%1-29.7%1-35.9%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.5%2-16.4%2-25.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.4%3-12.5%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% — — —

Draw 26.1% — — —

Away win 50.5% — — —

Over 2.5 58.3% — — —

Over 3.5 35.9% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob60.3%

A 50% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 0–1✓ 8.8%

#5 0–0 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Middelfart1.2

Aarhus Fremad1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDDELFART · PPG 0.54

AARHUS FREMAD · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.54) vs Away POOR (0.85)

Win probability 1X2

Middelfart (H) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aarhus Fremad (A) 50.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Middelfart face Aarhus Fremad in Denmark - 1. Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Middelfart a 23% chance, the draw 26% and Aarhus Fremad 51%, so Aarhus Fremad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Middelfart and 1.8 for Aarhus Fremad (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Middelfart are averaging 0.54 points per game versus 0.85 for Aarhus Fremad. This match finished 0-1.

Middelfart vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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