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Montpellier vs Grenoble Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Montpellier

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Grenoble

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-110.0%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.8%1-112.6%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-18.0%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.5%3-13.4%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 58.8% 1.70 -17.2%

Draw 29.2% 27.8% 3.60 +5.1%

Away win 22.1% 20.0% 5.00 +10.5%

Over 2.5 33.0% 54.1% 1.85 -39.0%

Over 3.5 14.7% 32.3% 3.10 -54.4%

BTTS 38.1% 57.8% 1.73 -34.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob38.1%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montpellier1.3

Grenoble0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTPELLIER · PPG 1.67

GRENOBLE · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=48.7%

Win probability 1X2

Montpellier (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -17.2%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +5.1%

Grenoble (A) 22.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Montpellier face Grenoble in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montpellier a 49% chance, the draw 29% and Grenoble 22%, so Montpellier are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Montpellier and 0.8 for Grenoble (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montpellier are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.73 for Grenoble. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Montpellier vs Grenoble Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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