Montpellier vs Grenoble Prediction— France - Ligue 2

France - Ligue 2 Regular Season - 31 Stade de la Mosson· Montpellier Friday, April 17, 2026 18:00

Montpellier PPG 1.67

2-1 MISS

Grenoble PPG 0.73

Away· +10.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Montpellier face Grenoble in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montpellier a 49% chance, the draw 29% and Grenoble 22%, so Montpellier are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Montpellier and 0.8 for Grenoble (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montpellier are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.73 for Grenoble. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 48.7%

Odds: 1.70 EV: -17.2%

Draw 29.2%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +5.1%

Away 22.1%

Odds: 5.00 EV: +10.5%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 33.0% Odds: 1.85 -39.0%

Over 3.5 14.7% Odds: 3.10 -54.4%

BTTS 38.1% Odds: 1.73 -34.1%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Montpellier

1.27

Grenoble

0.75

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5/Under 66%

BTTS/No 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=48.7%