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Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 15:00

Spaeri

PPG 0.80 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Torpedo Kutaisi

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.80), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-111.5%0-28.2%0-33.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.8%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.8%2-16.9%2-24.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.7%3-12.5%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.0% — — —

Draw 30.2% — — —

Away win 42.9% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 24.8% — — —

BTTS 52.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.5%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spaeri1.1

Torpedo Kutaisi1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 24.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPAERI · PPG 0.80

TORPEDO KUTAISI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.80), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Spaeri (H) 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Torpedo Kutaisi (A) 42.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Spaeri face Torpedo Kutaisi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spaeri a 27% chance, the draw 30% and Torpedo Kutaisi 43%, so Torpedo Kutaisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Spaeri and 1.4 for Torpedo Kutaisi (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spaeri are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Torpedo Kutaisi. This match finished 1-1.

Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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