Today / Croatia - First NL / Sesvete vs Karlovac

Sesvete vs Karlovac Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 15:00

Sesvete

PPG 1.93 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Karlovac

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-18.9%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.5%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-18.8%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.8%3-14.1%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 61.7% 1.62 -22.2%

Draw 31.0% 31.3% 3.20 -0.8%

Away win 21.0% 20.0% 5.00 +5.0%

Over 2.5 39.5% — — —

Over 3.5 19.4% — — —

BTTS 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.4%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sesvete1.4

Karlovac0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.5% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SESVETE · PPG 1.93

KARLOVAC · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=48.0%

Win probability 1X2

Sesvete (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -22.2%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -0.8%

Karlovac (A) 21.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sesvete face Karlovac in Croatia - First NL on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sesvete a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Karlovac 21%, so Sesvete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sesvete and 0.9 for Karlovac (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sesvete are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.85 for Karlovac. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Sesvete vs Karlovac Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions