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Alcorcon vs Europa Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 35 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 14:15

Alcorcon

PPG 1.53 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Europa

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.4%0-25.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.5%1-113.1%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.3%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.3%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 54.6% 1.83 -27.9%

Draw 32.0% 31.3% 3.20 +2.4%

Away win 28.6% 24.4% 4.10 +17.3%

Over 2.5 40.7% 43.5% 2.30 -6.4%

Over 3.5 20.3% 23.1% 4.33 -12.1%

BTTS 48.6% 48.8% 2.05 -0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 0–1✓ 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alcorcon1.3

Europa1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALCORCON · PPG 1.53

EUROPA · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Alcorcon (H) 39.4%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -27.9%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.4%

Europa (A) 28.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alcorcon face Europa in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alcorcon a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Europa 29%, so Alcorcon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Alcorcon and 1.0 for Europa (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alcorcon are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.35 for Europa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Alcorcon vs Europa Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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