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Le Mans vs Clermont Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 31 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

Le Mans

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Clermont

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

// Model verdict

Home 59% chance

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-16.8%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.0%1-111.3%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-15.3%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.9% 58.8% 1.70 -1.6%

Draw 24.1% 26.7% 3.75 -9.6%

Away win 17.9% 21.7% 4.60 -17.7%

Over 2.5 45.1% 54.6% 1.83 -17.5%

Over 3.5 23.8% 32.3% 3.10 -26.2%

BTTS 45.0% 57.8% 1.73 -22.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.0%

H 58% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 14.0%

#2 2–0 11.7%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Le Mans1.7

Clermont0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LE MANS · PPG 1.93

CLERMONT · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=57.9%

Win probability 1X2

Le Mans (H) 57.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -1.6%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.6%

Clermont (A) 17.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Le Mans face Clermont in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Le Mans a 58% chance, the draw 24% and Clermont 18%, so Le Mans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Le Mans and 0.8 for Clermont (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Le Mans are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.87 for Clermont. This match finished 1-0.

Le Mans vs Clermont Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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