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Shkupi vs Makedonija Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 14:00

Shkupi

PPG 0.07 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Makedonija

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-19.0%0-29.0%0-36.0%0-4+4.8%1 1-04.9%1-19.9%1-29.9%1-36.6%1-4+5.3%2 2-02.7%2-15.4%2-25.5%2-33.7%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.0%3-12.0%3-22.0%3-31.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.8% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 56.9% — — —

Over 2.5 60.1% — — —

Over 3.5 37.8% — — —

BTTS 59.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob59.3%

A 57% / xG 1.1-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.0%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 1–3 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shkupi1.1

Makedonija2.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHKUPI · PPG 0.07

MAKEDONIJA · PPG 0.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.07) vs Away POOR (0.53)

Win probability 1X2

Shkupi (H) 18.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Makedonija (A) 56.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shkupi face Makedonija in Macedonia - First League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shkupi a 19% chance, the draw 24% and Makedonija 57%, so Makedonija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Shkupi and 2.0 for Makedonija (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shkupi are averaging 0.07 points per game versus 0.53 for Makedonija. This match finished 0-4.

Shkupi vs Makedonija Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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