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Hamburger SV W vs Union Berlin W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 24 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

Hamburger SV W

PPG 0.55 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Union Berlin W

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 71.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.3%0-25.4%0-33.7%0-4+3.0%1 1-04.1%1-18.5%1-28.7%1-35.9%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.3%2-16.8%2-27.0%2-34.8%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.8%3-13.7%3-23.8%3-32.6%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.1%4+-22.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% 35.1% 2.85 -16.2%

Draw 23.8% 27.4% 3.65 -13.1%

Away win 46.8% 47.6% 2.10 -1.7%

Over 2.5 70.8% 69.0% 1.45 +2.7%

Over 3.5 49.8% 46.5% 2.15 +7.1%

BTTS 71.1% 71.4% 1.40 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob71.1%

A 47% / xG 1.6-2.1 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamburger SV W1.6

Union Berlin W2.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMBURGER SV W · PPG 0.55

UNION BERLIN W · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.09) vs Home POOR (0.55)

Win probability 1X2

Hamburger SV W (H) 29.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -16.2%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -13.1%

Union Berlin W (A) 46.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamburger SV W face Union Berlin W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamburger SV W a 29% chance, the draw 24% and Union Berlin W 47%, so Union Berlin W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hamburger SV W and 2.1 for Union Berlin W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamburger SV W are averaging 0.55 points per game versus 1.09 for Union Berlin W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Hamburger SV W vs Union Berlin W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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