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Spezia vs Venezia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

Spezia

PPG 1.11 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Venezia

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-111.3%0-29.6%0-35.4%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.7%1-111.4%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.4%2-15.8%2-24.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.1%3-12.0%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.8% 23.8% 4.20 -12.6%

Draw 27.5% 26.0% 3.85 +5.9%

Away win 51.8% 57.1% 1.75 -9.3%

Over 2.5 51.0% 60.6% 1.65 -15.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 38.2% 2.62 -24.3%

BTTS 53.8% 62.5% 1.60 -13.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob53.8%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 9.6%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spezia1.0

Venezia1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPEZIA · PPG 1.11

VENEZIA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Spezia (H) 20.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -12.6%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +5.9%

Venezia (A) 51.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spezia face Venezia in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spezia a 21% chance, the draw 28% and Venezia 52%, so Venezia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Spezia and 1.7 for Venezia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spezia are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.67 for Venezia. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Spezia vs Venezia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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