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Sampdoria vs Sudtirol Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

Sampdoria

PPG 1.61 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Sudtirol

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-110.9%0-25.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.5%1-113.2%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-18.0%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.1%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 46.7% 2.14 -19.3%

Draw 32.4% 30.3% 3.30 +6.9%

Away win 29.9% 29.4% 3.40 +1.7%

Over 2.5 39.7% 50.0% 2.00 -20.6%

Over 3.5 19.6% 28.6% 3.50 -31.4%

BTTS 48.0% 57.8% 1.73 -17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.0%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 1–0✓ 12.5%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sampdoria1.2

Sudtirol1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.7% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMPDORIA · PPG 1.61

SUDTIROL · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.61) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Sampdoria (H) 37.7%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -19.3%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +6.9%

Sudtirol (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sampdoria face Sudtirol in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sampdoria a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Sudtirol 30%, so Sampdoria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sampdoria and 1.1 for Sudtirol (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sampdoria are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.06 for Sudtirol. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Sampdoria vs Sudtirol Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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