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Palermo vs Catanzaro Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

Palermo

PPG 2.39 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Catanzaro

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.39) vs P(Home)=49.2%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.4%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.6%1-111.8%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.5%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-15.1%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 22.4% — — —

Over 2.5 49.0% — — —

Over 3.5 27.1% — — —

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palermo1.6

Catanzaro1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PALERMO · PPG 2.39

CATANZARO · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.39) vs P(Home)=49.2%

Win probability 1X2

Palermo (H) 49.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Catanzaro (A) 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Palermo face Catanzaro in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palermo a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Catanzaro 22%, so Palermo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Palermo and 1.0 for Catanzaro (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palermo are averaging 2.39 points per game versus 1.33 for Catanzaro. This match finished 3-2.

Palermo vs Catanzaro Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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