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Padova vs Pescara Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

Padova

PPG 1.22 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Pescara

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.2%0-25.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.9%1-112.1%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.0%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.6%3-14.4%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 37.0% 2.70 +11.8%

Draw 29.1% 28.6% 3.50 +1.8%

Away win 29.4% 41.3% 2.42 -28.8%

Over 2.5 50.9% 60.6% 1.65 -16.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 38.5% 2.60 -25.1%

BTTS 56.4% 66.7% 1.50 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.4%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 1–0✓ 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Padova1.5

Pescara1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PADOVA · PPG 1.22

PESCARA · PPG 0.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.22) > Away POOR (0.72)

Win probability 1X2

Padova (H) 41.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +11.8%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.8%

Pescara (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Padova face Pescara in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Padova a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Pescara 29%, so Padova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Padova and 1.2 for Pescara (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Padova are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.72 for Pescara. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Padova vs Pescara Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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