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Modena vs Reggiana Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

Modena

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Reggiana

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.6%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-111.9%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.3%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.7%3-14.8%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 61.3% 1.63 -14.6%

Draw 29.0% 26.0% 3.85 +11.7%

Away win 18.6% 19.6% 5.10 -5.1%

Over 2.5 43.2% 54.6% 1.83 -20.9%

Over 3.5 22.3% 32.3% 3.10 -30.9%

BTTS 46.9% 56.5% 1.77 -17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.9%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1✓ 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Modena1.6

Reggiana0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MODENA · PPG 1.56

REGGIANA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Modena (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -14.6%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +11.7%

Reggiana (A) 18.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Modena face Reggiana in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Modena a 52% chance, the draw 29% and Reggiana 19%, so Modena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Modena and 0.8 for Reggiana (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Modena are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.67 for Reggiana. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Modena vs Reggiana Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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