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Mantova vs Monza Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

Mantova

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Monza

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-112.1%0-28.6%0-34.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.0%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.7%2-16.6%2-24.7%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.6%3-12.3%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 21.7% 4.60 +19.1%

Draw 30.5% 27.8% 3.60 +9.8%

Away win 43.5% 57.5% 1.74 -24.3%

Over 2.5 44.5% 54.1% 1.85 -17.7%

Over 3.5 23.3% 30.8% 3.25 -24.3%

BTTS 50.9% 56.5% 1.77 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.9%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–2 8.9%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mantova1.0

Monza1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTOVA · PPG 1.50

MONZA · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Mantova (H) 25.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +19.1%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +9.8%

Monza (A) 43.5%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mantova face Monza in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mantova a 26% chance, the draw 31% and Monza 44%, so Monza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Mantova and 1.4 for Monza (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mantova are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Monza. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Mantova vs Monza Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions