Empoli vs Avellino Prediction & Tips

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Italy - Serie B Regular Season - 37 Stadio Carlo Castellani· Empoli Friday, May 1, 2026 13:00

Empoli PPG 1.28

1-0 HIT CS4

Avellino PPG 0.94

Over3.5· +4.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.4%

Odds: 2.20 EV: -4.5%

Draw 29.3%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -6.2%

Away 27.3%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -11.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.4% Odds: 2.10 +3.7%

Over 3.5 27.5% Odds: 3.80 +4.5%

BTTS 54.9% Odds: 1.80 -1.2%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✔

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Empoli

1.50

Avellino

1.15

Model SuggestionBTTS -1.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -1.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over3.5 (+4.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.28) > Away POOR (0.94)