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Empoli vs Avellino Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

Empoli

PPG 1.28 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Avellino

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.1%0-24.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.6%1-112.2%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.1%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.6%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 45.5% 2.20 -4.5%

Draw 29.3% 31.3% 3.20 -6.2%

Away win 27.3% 30.8% 3.25 -11.3%

Over 2.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Over 3.5 27.5% 26.3% 3.80 +4.5%

BTTS 54.9% 55.6% 1.80 -1.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.9%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 7.1%

#4 1–0✓ 10.6%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Empoli1.5

Avellino1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EMPOLI · PPG 1.28

AVELLINO · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.28) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Empoli (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -4.5%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.2%

Avellino (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Empoli face Avellino in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Empoli a 43% chance, the draw 29% and Avellino 27%, so Empoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Empoli and 1.2 for Avellino (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Empoli are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 0.94 for Avellino. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Empoli vs Avellino Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions