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Carrarese vs Cesena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

Carrarese

PPG 1.56 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cesena

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.4%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.2%1-112.4%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.1%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.5%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 44.2% 2.26 -1.0%

Draw 29.7% 30.3% 3.30 -2.0%

Away win 26.5% 32.8% 3.05 -19.2%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Over 3.5 25.9% 32.3% 3.10 -19.7%

BTTS 53.4% 61.7% 1.62 -13.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.4%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0✓ 7.6%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carrarese1.5

Cesena1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CARRARESE · PPG 1.56

CESENA · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Carrarese (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -1.0%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.0%

Cesena (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carrarese face Cesena in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carrarese a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Cesena 27%, so Carrarese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Carrarese and 1.1 for Cesena (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carrarese are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.17 for Cesena. This match finished 0-0.

Carrarese vs Cesena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions