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Italy - Serie B logo Italy flag Italy - Serie B Regular Season - 37 Stadio San Nicola· Bari Friday, May 1, 2026 13:00
Bari logo Bari PPG 1.28
2-0 MISS
Entella logo Entella PPG 0.44
Home· +9.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.1%
Odds: 2.80 EV: +9.5%
Draw 31.9%
Odds: 3.20 EV: +2.1%
Away 29.1%
Odds: 2.50 EV: -27.3%
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 41.3% Odds: 2.10 -13.3%
Over 3.5 20.8% Odds: 3.80 -21.0%
BTTS 49.1% Odds: 1.77 -13.1%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-0
3rd 1-0
4th 0-1
5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Bari
1.27
Entella
1.07

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%
O2.5/Under 55%
BTTS/No 57%
Score Hit 60%
ROI 6.9%
Bet Hit 59% (17 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.28) vs P(Home)=39.1%

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