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Bari vs Entella Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

Bari

PPG 1.28 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Entella

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.3%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.3%1-113.1%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-18.3%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.3%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 35.7% 2.80 +9.5%

Draw 31.9% 31.3% 3.20 +2.1%

Away win 29.1% 40.0% 2.50 -27.3%

Over 2.5 41.3% 47.6% 2.10 -13.3%

Over 3.5 20.8% 26.3% 3.80 -21.0%

BTTS 49.1% 56.5% 1.77 -13.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.1%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bari1.3

Entella1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BARI · PPG 1.28

ENTELLA · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.28) vs P(Home)=39.1%

Win probability 1X2

Bari (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +9.5%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.1%

Entella (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bari face Entella in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bari a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Entella 29%, so Bari are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bari and 1.1 for Entella (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bari are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 0.44 for Entella. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Bari vs Entella Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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