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Mariupol vs Ahrobiznes V. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 26 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 12:00

Mariupol

PPG 1.25 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Ahrobiznes V.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-114.1%0-28.5%0-33.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.0%1-113.3%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.2%2-16.3%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.6%3-12.0%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.8% — — —

Draw 33.2% — — —

Away win 40.0% — — —

Over 2.5 36.3% — — —

Over 3.5 17.0% — — —

BTTS 44.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob44.7%

A 40% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 14.1%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mariupol0.9

Ahrobiznes V.1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIUPOL · PPG 1.25

AHROBIZNES V. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Mariupol (H) 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ahrobiznes V. (A) 40.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mariupol face Ahrobiznes V. in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mariupol a 27% chance, the draw 33% and Ahrobiznes V. 40%, so Ahrobiznes V. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Mariupol and 1.2 for Ahrobiznes V. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mariupol are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.50 for Ahrobiznes V.. This match finished 4-0.

Mariupol vs Ahrobiznes V. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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