Today / China - Super League / S. Shenhua vs Chengdu

S. Shenhua vs Chengdu Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 9 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 12:00

S. Shenhua

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chengdu

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 68% chance

Model probability 68.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.3%0-24.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.7%1-19.4%1-27.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.1%3-15.1%3-24.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.4%4+-22.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 51.0% 1.96 -21.0%

Draw 25.2% 28.2% 3.55 -10.5%

Away win 34.5% 29.9% 3.35 +15.6%

Over 2.5 67.0% 63.7% 1.57 +5.2%

Over 3.5 45.3% 40.8% 2.45 +11.0%

BTTS 68.9% 67.6% 1.48 +2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.9%

H 40% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Shenhua1.8

Chengdu1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

S. SHENHUA · PPG 3.00

CHENGDU · PPG 2.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (3.00) > Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

S. Shenhua (H) 40.3%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -21.0%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.5%

Chengdu (A) 34.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Shenhua face Chengdu in China - Super League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Shenhua a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Chengdu 35%, so S. Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for S. Shenhua and 1.7 for Chengdu (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Shenhua are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Chengdu. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 2-3.

S. Shenhua vs Chengdu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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