Today / China - Super League / Shandong T. vs Qingdao West C.

Shandong T. vs Qingdao West C. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 9 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 11:35

Shandong T.

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Qingdao West C.

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWD

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 57.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.9%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.7%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.6%3-16.0%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 67.1% 1.49 -14.5%

Draw 25.8% 24.4% 4.10 +5.8%

Away win 16.8% 17.5% 5.70 -4.2%

Over 2.5 51.8% 63.7% 1.57 -18.7%

Over 3.5 29.6% 41.7% 2.40 -29.0%

BTTS 51.9% 61.7% 1.62 -15.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.9%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.7%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shandong T.1.8

Qingdao West C.0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANDONG T. · PPG 1.75

QINGDAO WEST C. · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

64%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=57.4%

Win probability 1X2

Shandong T. (H) 57.4%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -14.5%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +5.8%

Qingdao West C. (A) 16.8%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shandong T. face Qingdao West C. in China - Super League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shandong T. a 57% chance, the draw 26% and Qingdao West C. 17%, so Shandong T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Shandong T. and 0.9 for Qingdao West C. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shandong T. are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.40 for Qingdao West C.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Shandong T. vs Qingdao West C. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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