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Cagliari U20 vs Lecce U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 36 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 11:00

Cagliari U20

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lecce U20

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.2%0-26.1%0-33.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.9%1-111.6%1-28.6%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.2%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.6%3-13.9%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 29.0% 3.45 +19.0%

Draw 28.3% 27.4% 3.65 +3.3%

Away win 37.2% 55.6% 1.80 -33.0%

Over 2.5 55.1% 66.7% 1.50 -17.3%

Over 3.5 32.7% — — —

BTTS 60.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.1%

D 28% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cagliari U201.4

Lecce U201.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CAGLIARI U20 · PPG 1.29

LECCE U20 · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Cagliari U20 (H) 34.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +19.0%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +3.3%

Lecce U20 (A) 37.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cagliari U20 face Lecce U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cagliari U20 a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Lecce U20 37%, so Lecce U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cagliari U20 and 1.5 for Lecce U20 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cagliari U20 are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.35 for Lecce U20. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Cagliari U20 vs Lecce U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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