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Dalian Yingbo vs Chongqing T. Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 11:00

Dalian Yingbo

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Chongqing T.

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-110.7%0-27.5%0-33.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.0%1-112.6%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.3%2-17.4%2-25.1%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.1%3-12.9%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 52.6% 1.90 -43.6%

Draw 30.2% 30.8% 3.25 -1.8%

Away win 40.1% 25.6% 3.90 +56.4%

Over 2.5 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Over 3.5 25.6% 29.9% 3.35 -14.2%

BTTS 53.7% 57.8% 1.73 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.7%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Yingbo1.2

Chongqing T.1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN YINGBO · PPG 2.25

CHONGQING T. · PPG 2.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.25), Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Yingbo (H) 29.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -43.6%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -1.8%

Chongqing T. (A) 40.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +56.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Yingbo face Chongqing T. in China - Super League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Yingbo a 30% chance, the draw 30% and Chongqing T. 40%, so Chongqing T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dalian Yingbo and 1.4 for Chongqing T. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Yingbo are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 2.33 for Chongqing T.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +56.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Dalian Yingbo vs Chongqing T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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