Today / Concarneau vs Paris 13 A.

Concarneau vs Paris 13 A. Prediction

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Concarneau

PPG 1.21 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Paris 13 A.

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-110.2%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.1%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-18.3%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.9%3-13.5%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% — — —

Draw 32.5% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 37.5% — — —

Over 3.5 17.9% — — —

BTTS 45.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.1%

H 43% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0✓ 11.2%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concarneau1.3

Paris 13 A.0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCARNEAU · PPG 1.21

PARIS 13 A. · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.21) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Concarneau (H) 42.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paris 13 A. (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Concarneau face Paris 13 A. on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concarneau a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Paris 13 A. 25%, so Concarneau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Concarneau and 0.9 for Paris 13 A. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concarneau are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.71 for Paris 13 A.. This match finished 0-0.

Concarneau vs Paris 13 A. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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