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Buchholz vs Niendorfer TSV Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 19 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 17:00

Buchholz

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Niendorfer TSV

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.2%0-21.5%0-31.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-01.3%1-13.3%1-24.2%1-33.6%1-4+4.2%2 2-01.9%2-14.7%2-26.0%2-35.1%2-4+5.9%3 3-01.8%3-14.5%3-25.7%3-34.8%3-4+5.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-16.3%4+-28.1%4+-36.8%4+-4+8.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% — — —

Draw 18.7% — — —

Away win 35.7% — — —

Over 2.5 90.4% — — —

Over 3.5 78.5% — — —

BTTS 87.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob87.3%

H 46% / xG 2.8-2.5 / O2.5 90% / BTTS 87%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.0%

#2 3–2 5.7%

#3 2–3 5.1%

#4 3–3 4.8%

#5 2–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buchholz2.8

Niendorfer TSV2.5

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 90.4% · O3.5 PROB 78.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHHOLZ · PPG 1.75

NIENDORFER TSV · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.42)

Win probability 1X2

Buchholz (H) 45.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Niendorfer TSV (A) 35.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Buchholz face Niendorfer TSV in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buchholz a 46% chance, the draw 19% and Niendorfer TSV 36%, so Buchholz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Buchholz and 2.5 for Niendorfer TSV (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 90% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 87% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buchholz are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.42 for Niendorfer TSV. This match finished 1-1.

Buchholz vs Niendorfer TSV Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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